relation: http://miis.maths.ox.ac.uk/miis/721/
title: Propagation of uncertainty through the hazard chain
creator: Cawthorn, Chris
creator: Barton, David
creator: Maczka, Melissa
creator: Davies, Russell
creator: Siganporia, Zubin
creator: Tolarczyk, Andrej
subject: Environment
subject: Energy and utilities
description: DSTL wish to explore methods for propagating uncertainty through a succession of linked models. The Study Group have looked at the particular example of casualty estimation from airbourne dispersion and suggested two different potential solutions. If the structure of the models is sufficiently simple, and the number of degrees of freedom relatively small, a semi-analytical approach based on Bayes’ theorem can be used. In the more general case, intelligent sampling methods can be used to gradually build a picture of likely outcomes.
date: 2012
type: Study Group Report
type: NonPeerReviewed
format: application/pdf
language: en
identifier: http://miis.maths.ox.ac.uk/miis/721/1/ESGI85-DSTL1_CaseStudy.pdf
identifier:   Cawthorn, Chris and Barton, David and Maczka, Melissa and Davies, Russell and Siganporia, Zubin and Tolarczyk, Andrej  (2012) Propagation of uncertainty through the hazard chain.  [Study Group Report]