relation: http://miis.maths.ox.ac.uk/miis/106/
title: Aggregation of stochastic models
creator: Hjorth, Poul
subject: Aerospace and defence
description: Dstl examines battle simulations based on stochastic evolution codes. One such code, known as SIMBAT (SIMple BATtle program) models the evolution of the battle as a sequence of turns in which the two sets of combating units move in a landscape. The units have objectives and act accordingly, they can acquire enemy units if lines-of-sight in the landscape permit this, and they can fire upon and disable enemy units with a certain probability. Based on the setting of a large number of parameters, and also on the outcome of pseudo-random decisions and engagements made in the course of the action, a final outcome of the battle is achieved. Figure 1 shows a SIMBAT screenshot.   Figure 1: Screenshot from a SIMBAT battle. The setting is that of a ‘standard’ battle (see full report).  The problem posed to the Study Group is the following: Is it possible to analyse and subsequently calculate a battle in terms of smaller subunits which can then be aggregated into the whole in a systematic fashion? This could potentially speed up the processing of a large number of simulations.
date: 2007-04-17
type: Study Group Report
type: NonPeerReviewed
format: application/pdf
language: en
identifier: http://miis.maths.ox.ac.uk/miis/106/1/Dstl-AggregationReport.pdf
identifier:   Hjorth, Poul  (2007) Aggregation of stochastic models.  [Study Group Report]